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Data-driven election analysis, forecasts, and political commentary for Nepal. We dig into the numbers so you don't have to.
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Mar 8, 2026
From 3% in 1991 to 32% in 2022, Nepal's gender quota transformed representation. But the quota is under pressure, and the next election could roll back two decades of progress.
Thirty years, eight elections, and one civil war later, Nepal's electoral data tells a story that's messier — and more hopeful — than the headlines suggest. From two-party rule to coalition chaos, here's what the numbers actually say.
Nepal's governments last an average of 14 months. We built a model to figure out why some survive and others don't — and what it tells us about the coalitions likely to form after the next election.
A constituency-level model shows inflation is the single best predictor of whether Nepali incumbents win or lose. GDP growth matters too, but only if voters have been feeling it for years.
Madhesh Province holds just 32 seats — 19% of parliament. But no government has formed without them. Here's why the math makes Madhesh the most important political battleground in the country.
Thirty years of electoral data show that Nepal's seven provinces have developed distinct political personalities — and the parties that figure that out first will win in 2027.
Nepal uses a century-old formula to turn millions of votes into 110 parliamentary seats. Here's how it actually works — and why it matters more than you think.
Nepal's mixed electoral system combines winner-take-all districts with proportional representation — and the tension between those two methods has shaped every government since 2008. Understanding the math is the key to understanding Nepali politics.
Turnout dropped nearly 8 points between 2017 and 2022 — the steepest decline in Nepal's democratic history. Three decades of data reveal who stopped showing up, and why.
Nepal has held nine national elections since 1991, survived a civil war and the abolition of its monarchy, and still doesn't have a single dedicated data-driven election analysis platform. We're fixing that.
5.4 million voters under 30 make up nearly a quarter of Nepal's electorate. They're volatile, they're skeptical, and they could decide next election — if they show up.
